The third pillar is Timing the Future. This is the search for the patterns in change, the stages
and mechanisms of long-term change. Macrohistorians (Galtung and Inayatullah 1997) posit
that a number of patterns are critical if we wish to understand the shape of time:
1. The future is linear, stage-like, with progress ahead. By hard work, we will realize the good
future. Foundational writers include Auguste Comte (1875) and Herbert Spencer (1973).
2. The future is cyclical; there are ups and downs. Those at the top will one day find
themselves at the bottom. Because they are on the top, they are unable to adapt and
adjust as the world changes. Their success was based on mastery of yesterday’s
conditions. Few are able to reinvent their core stories. Foundational writers are Ssu-Ma
Chien (Watson 1958), Ibn Khaldun (1967) and Oswald Spengler (1972). Related to the
cycle is the pendulum, developed by Pitirim Sorokin (1957). In this approach, nations and
organizations tend to oscillate between extremes of two poles (centralization or
decentralization, modernity and religion, or civilian and military rule). Knowing where one
is in the pendulum can lead to more effective strategy, helping to decide how and when
to act.
3. The future is a spiral: parts are linear and progress-based, and parts are cyclical. With
leadership that is courageous and has foresight, a positive spiral can be created. The
dogmas of the past are challenged but the past is not disowned, rather it is integrated in
a march toward a better future. The foundational thinker for this approach is P. R. Sarka