Power politics suggests that the current stalemate could continue awhile. King Salman controls the money; Mohammed bin Nayef controls the interior ministry and its surveillance network; and Mohammed bin Salman controls the key oil and economic ministries. The deputy crown prince told a recent visitor that he didn’t expect to be king until he was 55, which is roughly Mohammed bin Nayef’s age. That informal comment is hardly a guarantee of stability, however.
How will this Saudi political cyclone evolve? Given the uproar in the normally placid kingdom over the past nine months, the answer from veteran Saudi watchers is: Nobody knows.