The unity government—led by Faeiz al-Serraj—faces an uphill battle to secure the loyalty of powerful local interest groups, and ultimately, restore security in Libya. Owing to the lack of a unified army Mr Serraj will struggle to achieve this goal. Oil output will therefore remain depressed, weighing heavily on investor sentiment. After a series of contractions in the early years of 2016-20, real GDP will eventually resume growth once security improves.