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Glob:Production Capabilities and Future Missile Prospects New Iranian space—launch facility under construction in 201 O.The launch infrastructure, presumably designed to accommodatethe Simorgh carrier rocket, includes a flame bucket to divert the large exhaust plume generated by the engine cluster consistingof four No-dong engines.establish firing tables and validate missile performeance, but for a single flight range of éookm.47 It istherefore reasonable to conclude that future Iranianmissile-development programmes will include aflight-testing effort that extends over at least twoyears, and more likely three to five years, and involveat a minimum half a dozen test launches. To achievea reasonable measure of reliability and confidence, adozen or more tests should be conducted.Therefore, considering the historically derivedtime estimate for a required flighttest programme tobe completed, Iran will not be able to field a liquid—fuelled missile capable of targeting Western Europebefore 2013. Taking into account Iran’s own historydeveloping the Shahubes and Ghadrel, it is safe toconclude that a 4,000—5,oool<.m»range liquid-fuelledmissile could not be deployed sooner than 2015.The recent presentation of the Simm‘gh andthe four—Nu—dang engine cluster that Iran claims isIran’s Ballistic Mlsslle Capabilitiesintended for future satellite carriers does not appre-ciably alter these projections because the timelineestimate accounts for the flight-test programme andnot the easily hidden research—and-developmentphase. To be sure, Iran’s space-programme activi-ties will provide valuable experience; however, theefforts appear for now to be aimed at civilian appli»cations. The modifications needed to convert thenotional space launchers into ballistic missiles willrequire time and, more importantly, flight testing inthe military configuration. Nonetheless, testing ofthe engine clusters will endow Iran with a potentialpropulsion system for intermediate and possiblylonger-range, liquid-propellant missiles. Potentialadversaries will therefore be closely monitoringlran’s space—programme activities.Logic and the history of Iran’s evolutionarymissile and space-launcher development effortssuggest that the Islamic Republic would develop109
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