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The third pillar is Timing the Future. This is the search for the patterns in change, the stagesand mechanisms of long-term change. Macrohistorians (Galtung and Inayatullah 1997) positthat a number of patterns are critical if we wish to understand the shape of time:1. The future is linear, stage-like, with progress ahead. By hard work, we will realize the goodfuture. Foundational writers include Auguste Comte (1875) and Herbert Spencer (1973).2. The future is cyclical; there are ups and downs. Those at the top will one day findthemselves at the bottom. Because they are on the top, they are unable to adapt andadjust as the world changes. Their success was based on mastery of yesterday’sconditions. Few are able to reinvent their core stories. Foundational writers are Ssu-MaChien (Watson 1958), Ibn Khaldun (1967) and Oswald Spengler (1972). Related to thecycle is the pendulum, developed by Pitirim Sorokin (1957). In this approach, nations andorganizations tend to oscillate between extremes of two poles (centralization ordecentralization, modernity and religion, or civilian and military rule). Knowing where oneis in the pendulum can lead to more effective strategy, helping to decide how and whento act.3. The future is a spiral: parts are linear and progress-based, and parts are cyclical. Withleadership that is courageous and has foresight, a positive spiral can be created. Thedogmas of the past are challenged but the past is not disowned, rather it is integrated ina march toward a better future. The foundational thinker for this approach is P. R. Sarka
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