The purpose of the second futures question is to map and identify the current thinking about
the future of the topic under investigation by the participants in the room. It is essential to
communicate the working definition between forecast and prediction at this time. It is also
important that you (the facilitator) stick to one term rather than oscillate between the two terms
in your facilitation language.
Prediction8
: A specific statement that something will happen in the future. "It will
rain tomorrow" is a prediction, and so is "If the wind is westerly and I sleep till after
8am, it will rain tomorrow" - but "it may rain tomorrow" is not a prediction.
Forecasting9
: Forecasts are usually applied to short-term futures - no more than a
few years ahead. A forecast is considered to be less certain than prediction, but
more certain than conjecture or anticipation.