EUR/USD's decline continued last week and reached as low as 1.0518. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Current fall from 1.1615 should target 1.0461/0517 key support zone. Based on current momentum, the consolidation pattern from 1.0461 could be completed already and the larger down trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.0461 will confirm this bearish case. On the upside, above 1.0657 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another fall.
In the bigger picture, the medium term consolidation pattern from 1.0461 could have completed as a triangle at 1.1298. Decisive break of 1.0461 will confirm resumption of long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). In such case, next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. This will now be the preferred case as long as 1.1298 resistance holds.