Loan Loss Provision
Sound loan loss provisioning policy is an important indicator of solvency and stability of the banking system.
The banks should, therefore, assess credit risk proactively when they book loans and should seek to protect themselves from potential losses – expected and unexpected.
Banks generally cover the expected losses by creating general loan loss provisions at the front end, while the unexpected losses are covered by capital.
However, the probability of defaults by borrowers changes over time, particularly in response to changes in economic conditions. During boom period, the borrowers’ ability to repay tend to increase and as a result loan defaults are likely to fall and vice versa.
The current practice is that banks place more weight on the current economic environment and too little on the possibility of changes in economic conditions in the future. Since provisions are a deduction from income, the cyclicality in provisions may contribute to procyclicality in banks’ earning and capital.
Banks are, therefore, encouraged to build capital cushion by retaining more profits earned during periods when provision requirements are low, which could be drawn down when large provisions are required to be made. Thus, banks should assess the impact of future macroeconomic conditions on their loan quality and build the necessary reserves in boom periods to provide a cushion against higher realized losses in economic downturns. In principle, the approach for provisions should be dynamic and / or forward-looking.